Authord: John Wade-Smith, Trustee, SA UK Trust Network
OK, dear reader, perhaps poetic license to draw you in, but bear with me.
Africa has a special place in my heart, having spent over 17 years of my career serving on the continent – nine of them in Pretoria and Jo’burg. I arrived in Kenya in 1993 as a young diplomat full of an Afro-optimism and, perhaps, I slipped to afro-realism over the intervening years of working to support growth, good governance, inclusion and zero tolerance to corruption. In that time I worked with many CSOs on many challenges that can seem intractable: poverty and unemployment; environmental pressures and climate change; crime and corruption. It’s hard to keep going when the ecosystem seems to conspire against progress for the most marginalised.
But never Afro-pessimism.
As I draw inspiration from all of you who work tirelessly to help those who need it most, I want to share some personal reflections on why my pendulum is swinging back towards optimism on South Africa, which I hope will be welcome as you continue to play your part.
South Africa – Internationally
2025: A Difficult Year…
Last year, the international spotlight on South Africa was harsh. While Ramaphosa demonstrated what a real statesman looks like, it was uncomfortable to watch him being admonished in the White House, falsely accused of presiding over a ‘white genocide’ (backed by photo “evidence” taken from the DRC, or the suggestion that a temporary exhibit was a burial site for over a thousand white farmers) and then facing punitive tariffs, suspended aid and threats to undermine South Africa’s Presidency of the G20.
…And South Africa Rose to It
South Africa took a firm but diplomatic stance. In a world dangerously driven by nationalism and shifting power dynamics, it demonstrated genuine global stature by securing a G20 Declaration, unusually, on the first day of the Summit, with the inequality emergency placed at the centre of the agenda. Widely seen as a rare victory for multilateralism, it confirmed South Africa’s continuing role as a champion of a rules-based international order, built on negotiation and inclusion.
Despite the noise from across the Atlantic, South Africa secured continued commitment to partnership from the UK and the European Union, while further strengthening its credibility across the Global South and among European and Asian partners.
South Africa at Home
One could argue that South Africa is in the best place it has been for a decade.
A Surprisingly Resilient Government of National Unity
Political coalitions are difficult to sustain anywhere, and, given South Africa’s unique history and the corrosive nature of its politics, few had confidence in the Government of National Unity when it was established in 2024. Most predicted paralysis at best, collapse at worst. But not only is the GNU holding: it has functioned, passed legislation and demonstrated that competitive politics and stability can coexist.
An Economy Moving in the Right Direction
After years of malaise, the economic signals are cautiously encouraging:
- Growth is forecast to rise from around 1.3% to approximately 2% over the next few years. This means the country is beginning to grow faster than its population, with real income per person starting to rise. Not a boom, but no longer stuck..
- South Africa’s credit outlook also improved late last year, signaling renewed confidence from international markets that the country’s fiscal and reform path is beginning to stabilise
- Inflation is low and stable at around 3–3.5%, which is low by international standards. This means prices are relatively stable, protecting ordinary households and giving the central bank room to reduce interest rates gradually. And cheaper borrowing supports investment and business growth
- With inflation under control, the central bank has room to cut interest rates, reducing borrowing costs for households, businesses and investors.
- South Africa is well positioned to benefit from the global mining super-cycle, particularly demand for platinum group metals essential to the energy transition.
- Consumer confidence is improving. This is a small but important signal that people are starting to feel slightly more hopeful about the future, important to fuel sustained growth.
- Rising corporate lending and growing demand for investment finance. This suggests a return of cautious confidence. Businesses and markets are beginning to believe again in South Africa’s economic prospects.
- The government is limiting spending increases and stabilising debt, with plans to invest over R1 trillion in infrastructure over the medium term. This indicates the start of the long process of rebuilding the systems that make the economy work.
- And the turnaround in energy security marks a genuine economic turning point after years in which load-shedding eroded business confidence. Reliable energy is now rebuilding it.
Of Course, There is Politics
Afro-realism requires I acknowledge what could derail this momentum. Today, Ramaphosa leads a GNU that is holding, and the more destabilising parties are quieter, with MK imploding and the EFF less prominent. But risks remain: MK could rebuild around Zulu nationalism; Municipal elections at the end of this year will raise political temperatures; and the ANC’s elective conference in late 2027 will signal either continued progress or a return to divisive internal power politics.
But let’s end on the positive..
…South Africa has come out of the era of state capture with the democratic institutions resilient, the courts independent and its society vibrant and engaged. South Africa’s road ahead will undoubtedly be long and hard. The country still faces deep challenges of poverty, inequality and unemployment. But at a time when the global environment feels increasingly unsettled, South Africa is demonstrating moral leadership and stability.
Your work is part of a bigger picture that seems to becoming more vibrant and in focus. By supporting some of the most marginalised communities, you are helping sustain the hope and possibility that continues to define South Africa’s journey.